Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Perez
Charles Johnson
65%
35%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
26-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-8
L2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Perez: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 8 sig / 0 TD
Alex Perez
Charles Johnson
43
Sig strikes landed
58
96
Sig strikes attempted
113
55
Total strikes landed
79
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alex Perez
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Johnson
"InnerG"
20-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—