Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Modestas Bukauskas
71%
29%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
31-12
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-7
L2
Current streak
W4
20
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Krylov: 72 sig / 1 TD ·
Bukauskas: 40 sig / 0 TD
Nikita Krylov
Modestas Bukauskas
30
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
78
41
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
20 fights · 11-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
Blue corner
W4
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
21-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—