Back to UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Prelims1 Middleweight

Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ateba Gautier
Andrey Pulyaev
78% 22%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
24
Age
Δ 5y
28
12-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-4
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gautier: 34 sig / 0 TD · Pulyaev: 59 sig / 0 TD
Ateba Gautier
Andrey Pulyaev
30
Sig strikes landed
15
62
Sig strikes attempted
34
37
Total strikes landed
21
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
86s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Ateba Gautier

"The Storm"
12-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
W UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
Blue corner
W1

Andrey Pulyaev

11-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…