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Main Women's Flyweight

Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Natalia Silva
Rose Namajunas
78% 22%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
21-5-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
16-8
W7
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
18

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Silva: 51 sig / 1 TD · Namajunas: 26 sig / 1 TD
Natalia Silva
Rose Namajunas
73
Sig strikes landed
59
146
Sig strikes attempted
139
102
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
65s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W7

Natalia Silva

21-5-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
W UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
W UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Blue corner
W1

Rose Namajunas

"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
L UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
W UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac