Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Jean Silva
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
22-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-4
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Allen: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 74 sig / 4 TD
Arnold Allen
Jean Silva
50
Sig strikes landed
46
115
Sig strikes attempted
99
74
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.70
143s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
L
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jean Silva
"Lord"
17-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—