Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Derrick Lewis
65%
35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
34
Age
Δ 7y
41
18-3
Career record
Δ 16 pp
30-13
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cortes Acosta: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Lewis: 8 sig / 0 TD
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Derrick Lewis
54
Sig strikes landed
31
109
Sig strikes attempted
71
78
Total strikes landed
41
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
169s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Waldo Cortes Acosta
"Salsa Boy"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
30 fights · 20-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—