Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Song Yadong
58%
42%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
67"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
19-4
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-9-1
L2
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
O'Malley: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Yadong: 36 sig / 3 TD
Sean O'Malley
Song Yadong
82
Sig strikes landed
70
150
Sig strikes attempted
149
84
Total strikes landed
85
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
33s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
19-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
Blue corner
W1
Song Yadong
"Kung Fu Kid"
24-9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
15 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—