🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Justin Gaethje
Paddy Pimblett
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
28-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-4
W1
Current streak
W7
14
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Gaethje: 144 sig / 3 TD ·
Pimblett: 156 sig / 0 TD
Justin Gaethje
Paddy Pimblett
60
Sig strikes landed
70
110
Sig strikes attempted
149
74
Total strikes landed
85
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
60s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W7
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—