Prelims1
Lightweight
Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Terrance McKinney
Chris Duncan
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 1y
33
19-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
16-3
W2
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McKinney: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Duncan: 38 sig / 1 TD
Terrance McKinney
Chris Duncan
32
Sig strikes landed
23
73
Sig strikes attempted
54
40
Total strikes landed
39
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
101s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
19-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W3
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—