Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
Manuel Torres
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
25-3-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-3
W3
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dawson: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Torres: 9 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
Manuel Torres
27
Sig strikes landed
28
64
Sig strikes attempted
56
69
Total strikes landed
43
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
363s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 11-1
Last 5
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Manuel Torres
"El Loco"
18-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—