Prelims2
Middleweight
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Antonio Trocoli
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Antonio Trocoli
76%
24%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
9-1-2
Career record
Δ 15 pp
12-8
D1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Abdul-Malik: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Trocoli: 3 sig / 0 TD
Mansur Abdul-Malik
Antonio Trocoli
33
Sig strikes landed
17
56
Sig strikes attempted
38
51
Total strikes landed
24
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
118s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Mansur Abdul-Malik
9-1-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
D
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
Blue corner
L2
Antonio Trocoli
"Malvado"
12-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—