Prelims2
Featherweight
Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Muhammad Naimov
Mairon Santos
27%
73%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
31
Age
Δ 6y
26
14-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
19-1
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Naimov: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 27 sig / 0 TD
Muhammad Naimov
Mairon Santos
27
Sig strikes landed
41
77
Sig strikes attempted
90
36
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Muhammad Naimov
"Hillman"
14-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W3
Mairon Santos
"The Legend"
19-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—