Back to UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
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Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Bogdan Guskov
51% 49%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
43
Age
Δ 10y
33
29-12-2
Career record
Δ 15 pp
19-3-1
L2
Current streak
W4
21
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Blachowicz: 84 sig / 0 TD · Guskov: 80 sig / 0 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Bogdan Guskov
37
Sig strikes landed
43
68
Sig strikes attempted
89
47
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
78s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jan Blachowicz

29-12-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database 21 fights · 12-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
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L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
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D UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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L UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
W4

Bogdan Guskov

"Hitman"
19-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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W UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—