Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Jalin Turner
48%
52%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
40
Age
Δ 9y
31
24-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-10
L2
Current streak
L2
31
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barboza: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Turner: 39 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Jalin Turner
61
Sig strikes landed
60
116
Sig strikes attempted
124
77
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
31 fights · 18-13
Last 5
L
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
L2
Jalin Turner
"The Tarantula"
15-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—