Prelims2
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marvin Vettori
Brunno Ferreira
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
19-11-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
16-3
L3
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vettori: 88 sig / 1 TD ·
Ferreira: 77 sig / 1 TD
Marvin Vettori
Brunno Ferreira
45
Sig strikes landed
61
92
Sig strikes attempted
116
56
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
126s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
Blue corner
W2
Brunno Ferreira
"The Hulk"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—