Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Henry Cejudo
Payton Talbott
34%
66%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
39
Age
Δ 12y
27
16-7
Career record
Δ 23 pp
12-1
L3
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cejudo: 60 sig / 1 TD ·
Talbott: 134 sig / 3 TD
Henry Cejudo
Payton Talbott
51
Sig strikes landed
58
95
Sig strikes attempted
140
69
Total strikes landed
69
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
122s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
Blue corner
W1
Payton Talbott
12-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—