🏆 Title fight
Main
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alexandre Pantoja
Joshua Van
65%
35%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
36
Age
Δ 11y
24
31-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
18-2
W8
Current streak
W5
17
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pantoja: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Van: 2 sig / 0 TD
Alexandre Pantoja
Joshua Van
95
Sig strikes landed
83
213
Sig strikes attempted
150
98
Total strikes landed
125
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
8.6
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
223s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
31-6
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
W5
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—