🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan
62%
38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
22-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-5
W8
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dvalishvili: 134 sig / 2 TD ·
Yan: 139 sig / 5 TD
Merab Dvalishvili
Petr Yan
87
Sig strikes landed
80
171
Sig strikes attempted
196
128
Total strikes landed
118
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
20.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
265s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 14-2
Last 5
W
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
Blue corner
W3
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—