Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Allen Frye Jr.
Guilherme Pat
63%
37%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 0"
81"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Frye Jr.: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Pat: 64 sig / 0 TD
Allen Frye Jr.
Guilherme Pat
33
Sig strikes landed
33
64
Sig strikes attempted
65
47
Total strikes landed
46
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
0.8
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Allen Frye Jr.
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Guilherme Pat
"Kong"
0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32