Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Croden vs Luana Santos
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Melissa Croden
Luana Santos
45%
55%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
9-3
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Croden: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 12 sig / 3 TD
Melissa Croden
Luana Santos
49
Sig strikes landed
47
79
Sig strikes attempted
81
71
Total strikes landed
80
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
159s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
9-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Luana Santos
11-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—