Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sean Sharaf
Steven Asplund
42%
58%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sharaf: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Asplund: 170 sig / 0 TD
Sean Sharaf
Steven Asplund
38
Sig strikes landed
44
76
Sig strikes attempted
97
49
Total strikes landed
63
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
98s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sean Sharaf
"The Smoke"
4-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
Blue corner
Steven Asplund
"Concrete"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27