Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Yaroslav Amosov
21%
79%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
W2
Current streak
—
36
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Magny: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Amosov: 9 sig / 1 TD
Neil Magny
Yaroslav Amosov
21
Sig strikes landed
48
74
Sig strikes attempted
80
50
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
76s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
32-15
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
36 fights · 24-12
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Rey…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
Blue corner
Yaroslav Amosov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32