Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cesar Almeida
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
21%
79%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
W2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 14 sig / 6 TD
Cesar Almeida
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
38
Sig strikes landed
41
68
Sig strikes attempted
86
49
Total strikes landed
51
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
44s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Cesar Almeida
"Cesinha"
8-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
Blue corner
Cezary Oleksiejczuk
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26