Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melquizael Costa
Morgan Charriere
76%
24%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
27-8
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-12-1
W4
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Costa: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Charriere: 2 sig / 0 TD
Melquizael Costa
Morgan Charriere
55
Sig strikes landed
41
112
Sig strikes attempted
108
71
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
Blue corner
W1
Morgan Charriere
"The Last Pirate"
22-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—