Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Miles Johns
Daniel Marcos
38%
62%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
15-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
18-2
L2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Johns: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Marcos: 27 sig / 3 TD
Miles Johns
Daniel Marcos
44
Sig strikes landed
58
113
Sig strikes attempted
114
56
Total strikes landed
80
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
64s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
15-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Marcos
"Soncora"
18-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—