Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Tecia Pennington vs Denise Gomes
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tecia Pennington
Denise Gomes
31%
69%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
16-8
Career record
Δ 15 pp
13-3
W2
Current streak
W3
18
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pennington: 58 sig / 1 TD ·
Gomes: 53 sig / 3 TD
Tecia Pennington
Denise Gomes
55
Sig strikes landed
62
94
Sig strikes attempted
130
70
Total strikes landed
91
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
115s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tecia Pennington
"Tiny Tornado"
16-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
61"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W3
Denise Gomes
"Dee"
13-3
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—