Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Zach Reese
Jackson McVey
64%
36%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
10-3
Career record
Δ 7 pp
7-3
W1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Reese: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
McVey: 56 sig / 0 TD
Zach Reese
Jackson McVey
41
Sig strikes landed
23
75
Sig strikes attempted
60
60
Total strikes landed
34
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zach Reese
"Savage"
10-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jackson McVey
"The Moose"
7-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—