Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Hokit
Max Gimenis
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hokit: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Gimenis: 3 sig / 0 TD
Josh Hokit
Max Gimenis
35
Sig strikes landed
33
68
Sig strikes attempted
68
76
Total strikes landed
47
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
171s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Hokit
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Max Gimenis
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33