Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Allan Nascimento
Cody Durden
77%
23%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
34
Age
Δ 0y
35
23-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
18-11-1
W3
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nascimento: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Durden: 57 sig / 1 TD
Allan Nascimento
Cody Durden
29
Sig strikes landed
17
61
Sig strikes attempted
43
61
Total strikes landed
39
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
246s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Allan Nascimento
"Puro Osso"
23-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
Blue corner
L2
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18-11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buck…
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—