Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Isaac Dulgarian
Yadier del Valle
56%
44%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
29
Age
29
8-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-1
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dulgarian: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
del Valle: 1 sig / 0 TD
Isaac Dulgarian
Yadier del Valle
13
Sig strikes landed
20
28
Sig strikes attempted
25
32
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
225s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
66%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Isaac Dulgarian
"The Midwest Choppa"
8-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W1
Yadier del Valle
"The Cuban Problem"
11-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—