Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Azamat Nuftillaev
Jovan Leka
53%
47%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
32
Age
Δ 8y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nuftillaev: 9 sig / 4 TD ·
Leka: 24 sig / 1 TD
Azamat Nuftillaev
Jovan Leka
33
Sig strikes landed
37
63
Sig strikes attempted
76
54
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Azamat Nuftillaev
"Dragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Jovan Leka
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24