Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Oliveira
Victor Valenzuela
65%
35%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 7"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Oliveira: 75 sig / 0 TD ·
Valenzuela: 30 sig / 0 TD
Michael Oliveira
Victor Valenzuela
39
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
67
77
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Michael Oliveira
"PQD"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Victor Valenzuela
"Psicosis"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32