Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mario Mingaj
Wes Schultz
62%
38%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mingaj: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Schultz: 12 sig / 2 TD
Mario Mingaj
Wes Schultz
42
Sig strikes landed
41
92
Sig strikes attempted
91
56
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
147s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mario Mingaj
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L1
Wes Schultz
"Party Time"
9-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 8.1
—