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Marwan Rahiki vs Ananias Mulumba

DWCS 9.10 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marwan Rahiki
Ananias Mulumba
69% 31%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rahiki: 43 sig / 0 TD · Mulumba: 44 sig / 0 TD
Marwan Rahiki
Ananias Mulumba
37
Sig strikes landed
33
78
Sig strikes attempted
66
78
Total strikes landed
51
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
164s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Marwan Rahiki

"Freaky"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner

Ananias Mulumba

"Metal"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27