Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kwon Wonil
Juan Diaz
37%
63%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Wonil: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 58 sig / 2 TD
Kwon Wonil
Juan Diaz
36
Sig strikes landed
40
76
Sig strikes attempted
80
47
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
85s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kwon Wonil
"Pretty Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Juan Diaz
"Pegajoso"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27