Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luis Felipe Dias
Donavon Hedrick
87%
13%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Dias: 17 sig / 4 TD ·
Hedrick: 26 sig / 2 TD
Luis Felipe Dias
Donavon Hedrick
52
Sig strikes landed
46
109
Sig strikes attempted
108
69
Total strikes landed
55
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
136s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Luis Felipe Dias
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Age
31
Blue corner
Donavon Hedrick
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29