Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Luke Fernandez
Rafael Pergentino
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
30
Age
Δ 7y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Fernandez: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Pergentino: 0 sig / 0 TD
Luke Fernandez
Rafael Pergentino
32
Sig strikes landed
33
64
Sig strikes attempted
72
46
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
113s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Luke Fernandez
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Rafael Pergentino
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24