Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adrian Luna Martinetti
Mark Vologdin
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
30
Age
Δ 5y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martinetti: 165 sig / 3 TD ·
Vologdin: 117 sig / 0 TD
Adrian Luna Martinetti
Mark Vologdin
41
Sig strikes landed
32
83
Sig strikes attempted
70
56
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
141s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adrian Luna Martinetti
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Mark Vologdin
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26