Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Lucas Caldas
Magomed Zaynukov
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caldas: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Zaynukov: 235 sig / 2 TD
Lucas Caldas
Magomed Zaynukov
34
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
75
45
Total strikes landed
70
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lucas Caldas
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Magomed Zaynukov
"Wild Chanco"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31