Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nurullo Aliev
Shem Rock
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aliev: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Rock: 44 sig / 1 TD
Nurullo Aliev
Shem Rock
27
Sig strikes landed
30
78
Sig strikes attempted
52
78
Total strikes landed
49
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
287s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
12-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
Blue corner
Shem Rock
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32