Prelims1
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
·ABHA Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ismail Naurdiev
Ryan Loder
84%
16%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
25-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Naurdiev: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Loder: 1 sig / 0 TD
Ismail Naurdiev
Ryan Loder
40
Sig strikes landed
28
67
Sig strikes attempted
67
70
Total strikes landed
45
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
197s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ismail Naurdiev
25-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan Loder
"Man of Steel"
8-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—