Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tagir Ulanbekov
Kyoji Horiguchi
25%
75%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 7"
63"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
18-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
37-5
W4
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Ulanbekov: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Horiguchi: 49 sig / 0 TD
Tagir Ulanbekov
Kyoji Horiguchi
44
Sig strikes landed
47
112
Sig strikes attempted
100
67
Total strikes landed
72
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
6.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
184s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Tagir Ulanbekov
18-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W3
Kyoji Horiguchi
"Karate Kid"
37-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—