Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Bogdan Grad
Luke Riley
47%
53%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Grad: 7 sig / 4 TD ·
Riley: 14 sig / 0 TD
Bogdan Grad
Luke Riley
34
Sig strikes landed
36
62
Sig strikes attempted
64
57
Total strikes landed
75
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.7
4.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
198s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bogdan Grad
"The Unleashed"
15-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
Blue corner
Luke Riley
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26