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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Bekzat Almakhan vs Aleksandre Topuria

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker ·ABHA Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Bekzat Almakhan
Aleksandre Topuria
64% 36%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
13-3
Career record
Δ 8 pp
8-1
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almakhan: 39 sig / 0 TD · Topuria: 47 sig / 2 TD
Bekzat Almakhan
Aleksandre Topuria
28
Sig strikes landed
27
59
Sig strikes attempted
55
41
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
105s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Bekzat Almakhan

"The Turan Warrior"
13-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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Blue corner
W1

Aleksandre Topuria

"El Conquistador"
8-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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