Back to UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Rafael Cerqueira

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker ·ABHA Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Rafael Cerqueira
77% 23%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
25
Age
Δ 11y
36
—
Current streak
L3
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Yakhyaev: 6 sig / 1 TD · Cerqueira: 0 sig / 0 TD
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Rafael Cerqueira
37
Sig strikes landed
25
69
Sig strikes attempted
46
66
Total strikes landed
33
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

"The Hunter"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L3

Rafael Cerqueira

"The Lion"
11-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—