Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alex Perez
Asu Almabayev
39%
61%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
65"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
26-11
Career record
Δ 19 pp
24-3
L1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Perez: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Almabayev: 36 sig / 2 TD
Alex Perez
Asu Almabayev
27
Sig strikes landed
36
61
Sig strikes attempted
66
38
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.0
Takedowns attempted
6.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
79s
Control time
330s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Perez
26-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
Blue corner
W1
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
24-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—