Main
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush vs Benoit Saint Denis
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Benoit Saint Denis
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
36
Age
Δ 7y
30
24-8-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-3
W1
Current streak
W2
24
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dariush: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Saint Denis: 3 sig / 0 TD
Beneil Dariush
Benoit Saint Denis
34
Sig strikes landed
46
61
Sig strikes attempted
81
50
Total strikes landed
70
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
169s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
24 fights · 17-6
Last 5
W
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
Blue corner
W2
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—