Main
Welterweight
Leon Edwards vs Carlos Prates
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Carlos Prates
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
22-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
25-7
L2
Current streak
W1
19
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Edwards: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Prates: 21 sig / 0 TD
Leon Edwards
Carlos Prates
50
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
87
68
Total strikes landed
45
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
186s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
19 fights · 14-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Prates
"The Nightmare"
25-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—