Back to UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Prelims2 Middleweight

Kyle Daukaus vs Gerald Meerschaert

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev ·Madison Square Garden
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Kyle Daukaus
Gerald Meerschaert
63% 37%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
18-4
Career record
Δ 20 pp
37-23
W1
Current streak
L3
8
UFC fights in our DB
24

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Daukaus: 8 sig / 0 TD · Meerschaert: 0 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Daukaus
Gerald Meerschaert
27
Sig strikes landed
25
54
Sig strikes attempted
48
46
Total strikes landed
40
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
205s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Kyle Daukaus

18-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
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L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
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W UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
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L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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Blue corner
L3

Gerald Meerschaert

"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database 24 fights · 12-12
Last 5
L UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
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