Prelims2
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini vs Chepe Mariscal
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Pat Sabatini
Chepe Mariscal
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
23-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-7
W2
Current streak
W5
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sabatini: 12 sig / 7 TD ·
Mariscal: 7 sig / 0 TD
Pat Sabatini
Chepe Mariscal
31
Sig strikes landed
28
75
Sig strikes attempted
46
55
Total strikes landed
57
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
233s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Pat Sabatini
23-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
W5
Chepe Mariscal
"Machine Gun"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—